Assignment 1: Population Dynamics

Executive Summary

Purpose and method of this report

Recently, an opportunity has presented itself for a large amount of money to be invested in a new business in Jacksonville, Florida. The purposes of this report are to:

• Determine the age, population, and industry dynamics of Jacksonville compared to the state of Florida and the U.S.
• Make recommendations of what type of business to invest in based on these findings

Using U.S. Census data, this report will include:

1. A population pyramid - shows age and sex dynamics of a population
2. Dependency ratio - compares the youth and elderly populations to the working population
3. Location quotients - is a measure of geographical concentration of a variable in a region compared to another region

These findings will assist in making the appropriate recommendations for what type of business to invest in.

Findings and conclusions

Recommendations for what type of business to invest in

Introduction

An opportunity has arisen for investing a large amount of money into a new business in Jacksonville, Florida. However, it is not certain as to what type of business this money should be invested in. A number of population dynamics come into play here including:

• A growing population of young children
• A large population of retirees
• A surge in Hispanic populations

There are also some service sector dynamics that must be looked at. Using data from the U.S. Census website, these population and service sector dynamics will be analyzed comparing Jacksonville to the entire state of Florida and the United States as a whole. After analyzing these areas, this report will help in answering the question, "What type of business should be invested in in Jacksonville, Florida?"

Conclusions

Recommendations

Findings and Discussion

Figure 1: Jacksonville, FL population pyramid

Population Pyramid

Jacksonville, FL has a total population of 1,401,600 people. Looking at the population pyramid of this city (Figure 1) will allow for analyzing which age group and sex that would be ideal for the potential business. There is a fairly equal ratio of males to females across the board, so the business could be gender neutral. However, the age dynamics are more varied. Currently only about 12% of the total population of Jacksonville are elderly people ages 70 and above. Children 19 and under make up approximately 25% of the population. The largest group, as can be visually seen by the "bulge" on either side of the graph in the middle of the age cohorts, belongs to young adults from 20 years of age, to older adults up to age 54.

Dependency Ratio

Figure 2: Dependency ratio of Florida

With a dependency ratio of 55.04 (refer to figure 2), which is quite high, it can be concluded that Florida has large amount of people that are either under 15 or older than 64 compared to those that fall between these ages. Since Florida is a popular retirement location, this ratio may be influenced by the number of retirees residing in this state. However, there could also be a higher population of children under 15 years old. 

Location Quotients

to be continued...

Population Dynamics

Introduction

An opportunity has presented itself to invest a reasonable amount of money in a new business in Jacksonville, FL. The question is: What exactly should should this money be invested in? There are many possibilities based on certain population patterns such as a growing number in children, a large number of retirees, and an increasing Hispanic population. By analyzing the age structure of Jacksonville in comparison to the state of Florida and the United States as a whole, the best possible answer to this question may be reached. The tools and techniques that will be used to reach this answer will include:

1. A population pyramid
2. Calculating dependency ratios
3. Calculating location quotients

Analysis

Population Pyramid

Figure 1: Jacksonville, FL population pyramid

Jacksonville, FL has a total population of 1,401,600 people. Looking at the population pyramid of this city (Figure 1) will allow for analyzing which age group and sex that would be ideal for the potential business. There is a fairly equal ratio of males to females across the board, so the business could be gender neutral. However, the age dynamics are more varied. Currently only about 12% of the total population of Jacksonville are elderly people ages 70 and above. Children 19 and under make up approximately 25% of the population. The largest group, as can be visually seen by the "bulge" on either side of the graph in the middle of the age cohorts, belongs to young adults from 20 years of age, to older adults up to age 54. 

Dependency Ratio

Figure 2: Dependency ratio of Florida

With a dependency ratio of 55.04 (refer to figure 2), which is quite high, it can be concluded that Florida has large amount of people that are either under 15 or older than 64 compared to those that fall between these ages. Since Florida is a popular retirement location, this ratio may be influenced by the number of retirees residing in this state.

Location Quotients

Figure 3: Population dynamics of Jacksonville, Duval County,
Florida, and the U.S.

Figure 4: Location quotients of age and race factors

Using the number located in Figure 3, location quotients can be calculated for Jacksonville, Duval County, and Florida against the entire United States (Figure 4). For the population (age 0-14), Florida has a lower number compared to that of the rest of the country. For the population (age 65 and over), Duval county has a lower number whereas Florida has a much higher number compared to the rest of the country. For the Hispanic population, Jacksonville and Duval County have much smaller numbers while Florida has a much greater number of Hispanics overall. For the White population, Duval county has a smaller value while Jacksonville and Florida are about even compared to the rest of the country. 

Comparing Jacksonville's industry sector to that of Florida as a whole can help in this analysis for the new business as well (Figure 5). The Professional and Educational sectors in Jacksonville are about even with that of Florida. Finance has a much higher concentration (1.5) in Jacksonville along with Public Administration (1.15) compared to the rest of the state. On the other hand, both the Arts (0.89) and Other (0.91) sectors have a lower concentration compared to the rest of Florida.

Figure 5: Location quotients of industry factors comparing Jacksonville to the state of Florida