Population Dynamics

Introduction

An opportunity has presented itself to invest a reasonable amount of money in a new business in Jacksonville, FL. The question is: What exactly should should this money be invested in? There are many possibilities based on certain population patterns such as a growing number in children, a large number of retirees, and an increasing Hispanic population. By analyzing the age structure of Jacksonville in comparison to the state of Florida and the United States as a whole, the best possible answer to this question may be reached. The tools and techniques that will be used to reach this answer will include:

1. A population pyramid
2. Calculating dependency ratios
3. Calculating location quotients

Analysis

Population Pyramid

Figure 1: Jacksonville, FL population pyramid

Jacksonville, FL has a total population of 1,401,600 people. Looking at the population pyramid of this city (Figure 1) will allow for analyzing which age group and sex that would be ideal for the potential business. There is a fairly equal ratio of males to females across the board, so the business could be gender neutral. However, the age dynamics are more varied. Currently only about 12% of the total population of Jacksonville are elderly people ages 70 and above. Children 19 and under make up approximately 25% of the population. The largest group, as can be visually seen by the "bulge" on either side of the graph in the middle of the age cohorts, belongs to young adults from 20 years of age, to older adults up to age 54. 

Dependency Ratio

Figure 2: Dependency ratio of Florida

With a dependency ratio of 55.04 (refer to figure 2), which is quite high, it can be concluded that Florida has large amount of people that are either under 15 or older than 64 compared to those that fall between these ages. Since Florida is a popular retirement location, this ratio may be influenced by the number of retirees residing in this state.

Location Quotients

Figure 3: Population dynamics of Jacksonville, Duval County,
Florida, and the U.S.

Figure 4: Location quotients of age and race factors

Using the number located in Figure 3, location quotients can be calculated for Jacksonville, Duval County, and Florida against the entire United States (Figure 4). For the population (age 0-14), Florida has a lower number compared to that of the rest of the country. For the population (age 65 and over), Duval county has a lower number whereas Florida has a much higher number compared to the rest of the country. For the Hispanic population, Jacksonville and Duval County have much smaller numbers while Florida has a much greater number of Hispanics overall. For the White population, Duval county has a smaller value while Jacksonville and Florida are about even compared to the rest of the country. 

Comparing Jacksonville's industry sector to that of Florida as a whole can help in this analysis for the new business as well (Figure 5). The Professional and Educational sectors in Jacksonville are about even with that of Florida. Finance has a much higher concentration (1.5) in Jacksonville along with Public Administration (1.15) compared to the rest of the state. On the other hand, both the Arts (0.89) and Other (0.91) sectors have a lower concentration compared to the rest of Florida.

Figure 5: Location quotients of industry factors comparing Jacksonville to the state of Florida